Coming Altseason: Data Points to Imminent Arrival

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant drop in price after reaching a new all-time high of $69,324 on March 5. Alternative cryptocurrencies, led by meme coins and AI-themed crypto, have been outperforming Bitcoin in the past week, leading to discussions about whether the altcoin season (altseason) has arrived.

The total market capitalization of the crypto market surpassed $2.5 trillion when Bitcoin briefly reached above $69,000. Currently, the market cap stands at $2.52 trillion according to CoinMarketCap. Altcoins also displayed strength, with their total market cap exceeding $1.1 trillion on the same day. This indicates growing investor interest in altcoins and their impressive recent performance.

Large-cap altcoins have been outperforming Bitcoin recently. Meme coins and AI-related tokens have seen significant gains within the past seven days. Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, for example, rose by 20% and 130% respectively during this week. Other newer tokens like Pepe, Bonk (BONK), and dogwifhat (WIF) also experienced double to triple-digit gains. Similarly, tokens within the AI ecosystem, such as Fetch.ai (FET), Synesis One (SNS), SingularityNET (AGIX), and Theta Network, saw double to triple-digit gains within seven days. In contrast, Bitcoin only rose by 8.5% during the same period.

While these performances suggest the possibility of an altseason, the altcoin season index is not strong enough to declare it yet. According to the index by Blockchain Center, an altcoin season is indicated when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the past 90 days. Currently, only 69% of these altcoins have achieved this. A market report by K33 Research suggests that the situation could change soon. The report points out that Bitcoin’s market cap has doubled relative to other cryptocurrencies since November 2022, similar to what occurred during the altcoin bull run in 2020.

Independent analyst CrediBULL outlines two possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s performance and its connection to the altseason. The first scenario involves Bitcoin breaking its previous all-time high and quickly doubling in value, followed by altcoins rallying during a pause in Bitcoin’s uptrend. The second scenario involves Bitcoin revisiting its prior all-time high but facing rejection or consolidation, resulting in altcoins rallying immediately after Bitcoin tags its previous ATH.

Not everyone believes the altcoin season has arrived yet. Founder and CEO of MN Trading Consultancy, Michaël van de Poppe, points out that altcoins still need to capture a significant portion of market capitalization before reaching the 2021 highs. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes altseason will begin once Dogecoin surpasses Cardano in market capitalization.

While altcoins have been outperforming Bitcoin lately, it is still unclear whether we are in the midst of an altseason. The altcoin season index and various expert opinions suggest that we might be on the verge of one, but further market movements and milestones need to be reached to confirm its arrival.

Nikos Dixon

Nikos Dixon

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