Bitcoin’s Impending Correction: 5 Weeks till Halving

Bitcoin may be on the brink of a correction before its upcoming halving, according to historical chart patterns. Despite reaching a new all-time high of around $73,700 on March 13, there are increasing signs of overheating and a potential significant drop in Bitcoin’s price before the halving in April. Analysts have noted that previous halvings saw corrections of 20% in 2020 and 38% in 2016. A pseudonymous analyst named Rekt Capital suggests that a similar retracement could occur this time, possibly lasting up to 77 days but potentially being less severe than previous cycles.

There is speculation that this time might be different. The current cycle has already deviated from past ones as Bitcoin set a new record high before the halving even occurred. Bitcoin is still behind its growth trajectory from previous halving cycles. Historical data shared by Ecoinometrics indicates that Bitcoin’s price could be worth anywhere between $100,000 to $300,000 per coin if it followed a similar growth pattern to previous cycles. This suggests that there is still room for Bitcoin’s price to increase, especially since the previous all-time high can now act as a support level before the halving.

In light of these factors, wealth management firm Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin could reach around $150,000 after the halving and by mid-2025. Bernstein’s analysts attribute this expectation to the elevated demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. They are confident in their price target, especially since Bitcoin ETF inflows have already surpassed their estimates for the year. Bernstein also advises clients to invest in Bitcoin miners, as the current underperformance may present a final opportunity before the halving.

Bernstein’s price target appears modest compared to Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, which has a long-term Bitcoin price target of over $1 million. Wood’s firm has adjusted its expectations and brought forward its forecast due to the growing mainstream acceptance and adoption of Bitcoin.

While there are indications of a potential correction before Bitcoin’s halving, there are also arguments suggesting that the current cycle differs from past ones, and Bitcoin’s price still has room to increase. Bernstein predicts a breakout to $150,000, while Ark Invest has an even more optimistic long-term target of over $1 million for Bitcoin.

Miran Umstead

Miran Umstead

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